By Zenitha Prince
Washington Bureau Chief
Last year, African Americans accounted for 20 percent of the electorate. But, in Tuesday’s race, they accounted for 15 percent. (Courtesy Photo)
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(November 5, 2009) - Republican victories in the Virginia and New Jersey governors' races may or may not indicate a national comeback for the GOP, but they could convince former Maryland Gov. Robert Ehrlich that the time is right for a Republican to reclaim the state's top political office.
"It's going to impact Republican candidates around the country, including Maryland. As you know these off-cycle races have become fairly accurate predictors of on-cycle results," said Ehrlich, considered the strongest potential challenger to Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley next year. Ehrlich emphasized, however, that he's set no time frame for announcing his decision about whether or not to run.
The outcome of such a matchup could depend on Black voters, however, much as it did in the Virginia race this week.
For many Black voters in Old Dominion, there seemed to be only two options in this week’s statewide elections—vote Democrat or avoid the polls. Too many chose the latter, political analysts say, and may have played a big role in a GOP sweep on Nov. 3.
“Unfortunately, I think a lot of our people just stayed home,” said Stephanie Myers, national co-chair of Black Women for Obama for Change, a political interest group that campaigned for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, who lost 41 percent to 59 percent to his rival, Robert F. McDonnell.
That was true for Virginia’s entire electorate. This year saw the lowest turnout in a gubernatorial race in four decades, according to statistics from the Virginia State Board of Elections.
Not only did voter registration decrease, but also a mere 39 percent (1,914, 289) of the state’s near-5 million voters showed up at the polls. That was almost half the percentage of people (75 percent) who voted in last year’s presidential election.
Democrats suffered most from this voter malaise, said political analyst Larry Sabato, since the coalition that made President Barack Obama the first Democrat to win Virginia since 1964 did not wield their power on behalf of Deeds, 51, and other Democratic candidates.
“There was low turnout among African Americans; there was low turnout among young voters; there was low turnout among Obama suburbanites—Democrats just didn’t show up and the Republicans did,” said Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Last year, African Americans accounted for 20 percent of the electorate. But, in Tuesday’s race, they accounted for 15 percent.
The outcome, political experts said, was partly the product of a longtime phenomenon in Virginia, whose voters tend to offer up the governor’s mansion as a consolation prize to the party that lost the presidential election.
Some political analysts are not convinced, however, the outcome will be the same for Maryland in the 2012 election. "I think at the moment you'd be hard pressed to identify a Republican that would have a better chance statewide in Maryland who believe that among Maryland Republicans, Ehrlich is currently the strongest candidate for governor," said Todd Eberly, a political science professor at St. Mary's College. “A majority of voters supported the job he was doing, but he still lost. I think that speaks to the voting advantage that Democrats have in the state."
The question is whether Tuesday's results are a sign the Democratic advantage in Maryland is vulnerable.
In Virginia, where governors cannot run for re-election, the state's former Attorney General Republican Bob McDonnell defeated his Democratic opponent, state Sen. Creigh Deeds, with nearly 59 percent of the vote. McDonnell expanded on the 13 percentage point lead he had in the polls going into the nationally watched gubernatorial election, according to polling averages by Real Clear Politics.
McDonnell took down the incumbent party that had occupied the governor's office since 2002.
"I don't think this necessarily means that people are going to be flocking to the Republican Party and I wouldn't read it as such," said Michael McDonald, a political scientist at George Mason University, referring to possible reactions to McDonnell's win.
Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, said Obama has "energized the GOP," bringing out voters who are angry with the president's policies.
GOP leader Michael Steele agrees. “The Republican Party’s overwhelming victory in Virginia is a blow to President Obama and the Democrat Party. It sends a clear signal that voters have had enough of the president’s liberal agenda,” Steele said in a statement.
Ehrlich also referred to the GOP takeover in New Jersey, where incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine lost reelection by 4 percentage points to Republican challenger Chris Christie, as a “pretty big deal.”
"New Jersey is a little more instructive as far as the future," he said. "New Jersey looks more like Maryland. It's a blue state, a lot of labor, very organized Democratic Party, so it's a tough state for Republicans to win."
Eberly said the impact of a Republican win in New Jersey is significant.
"It [sends] a signal that the Republican base is more energized and more eager to get out and vote," he said. "It [also sends] a message that whatever exuberance that Democrats had in 2008, it has been dampened."
A drop in enthusiasm by Democratic voters, which includes a major portion of the Black vote, could be all that's needed to energize Republicans.
"It's definitely looking more and more like it's going to be an anti-incumbent year," said Justin Ready, former executive director of the Maryland Republican Party. "In Maryland the majority of the incumbents are Democrats, so I think Democrats need to be concerned about that. I think it's a bright spot for Republicans."
After a Board of Public Works meeting Nov. 4, O'Malley said "every race is different," noting, "Maryland's not New Jersey or Virginia," but that he saw the results from Tuesday's elections as an indicator of the anxiety voters feel about the economy.
"What I took from what I saw in the results… was that overall people are very apprehensive —rightly so —about the economy," he said. "And they want their government to work harder to get us out of this recession as soon as possible."
Karen Anderson, a writer for the Capital News Service, contributed to this report.