The election of Barack Obama as president triggered a number of historical moments and trends. Not only was he the first Black president who hoped to usher in a new “post-racial” age, but his two-terms in office was marked by economic disruption unseen since the Great Depression, a dramatic overhaul of health care and a period of volatile partisan polarization.
Gun sales rose dramatically under President Barack Obama but are falling under President Donald Trump. (Jessica Reilly /Telegraph Herald via AP)
But it also marked a strange and unprecedented surge in gun sales. Under President Obama, gun sales jumped by nearly 160 percent between 2008 – 2015, according to the National Shooting Sports Foundation. While firearm sales generated economic output of nearly $50 billion in 2015, job growth in the gun sector grew 73 percent, from 166,000 to 288,000. Gun sales rose another 40 percent in the wake of the Orlando night club shooting, but also noticeably during a time when an anxious conservative electorate was convinced Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would win the presidency and roll back gun rights.
Yet, once President Trump entered office, gun sales dropped.
Even with the new president’s push on law and order, describing an “American carnage” of cities gripped by rising violent crime, gun enthusiasts aren’t finding reasons to purchase firearms the same way they did when a Black president was in office. Recent FBI data not only show back-to-back reductions in firearm sales during December 2016 and January 2017, but also a 20 percent dip since January 2016.
On the surface, fluctuations in the domestic firearms market can be explained by fears over how the political climate impacts gun rights: traditionally, Democratic presidents are viewed as gun control (and, thus, anti-gun) while Republican presidents are seen as friendly to the gun rights lobby. President Obama, along with Attorney General Eric Holder, was widely viewed as an existential threat to gun rights. With mass shootings becoming more frequent, the Obama administration struggled to impose tighter restrictions on domestic gun sales.
Still, surges in gun sales are also largely explained by race when the demography of gun ownership is factored in. Whites dominate the gun-owning landscape, with 41 percent who admit having a firearm in their homes compared to only 19 percent of Blacks and 20 percent of Latinos who admit the same.
Race also drove substantial increases in gun sales during another period in American history when Blacks were viewed as leveraging a substantial degree of political power: once following the Civil War when Black Americans were elected or appointed to political office. At the time, the sudden wave of Blacks entering state houses, Governor mansions and Congress was viewed by many Whites as a sign of a violent takeover by former slaves. In response, Whites, especially in the South, armed up.
In contrast, since the election of Donald Trump, gun sales have dropped as the new president’s White favorability remains steady at 50 percent, according to the most recent YouGov poll. Both publicly-traded gun makers Sturm Ruger and Smith and Wesson have reported 20 percent stock price declines since Trump’s election while ammunition manufacturer Olin reported post-election sales declines of 20 percent, as well.
Gun sale trends aligned with White voter sentiment suggest a pattern of general White anxiety over gun rights rising and falling according to political events. But, gun sales during the Obama presidency were the highest they had ever been in U.S. history – even surpassing the spike in gun sales following President Clinton’s signature of the Federal Assault Weapons ban into law in 1994.
Recent drops in gun sales are already forcing the gun rights lobby and gun makers to scramble for new markets and revenue opportunities. Prior to delivering his Joint Address before Congress Feb. 28, President Trump reversed President Obama’s regulation severely restricting individuals with mental illnesses from buying a gun. Obama administration officials had estimated the addition of 75,000 citizens to the national FBI background database, including individuals receiving Social Security for mental illness and those with a damaged financial or credit history.
And recently in Congress, two GOP lawmakers introduced legislation that would effectively nullify the Gun Free School Zone Act of 1990. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) proposed the “Safe Students Act,” thereby repealing the Gun Free Schools act, and Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) submitted a bill transferring authority over school gun rules to states and municipalities.
If passed, there would be little resistance from President Trump, thereby potentially ensuring a wholesale repeal of Gun Free Schools. Observers expect little resistance in passing or implementing the law from Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, who made critics uncomfortable during her Jan. 18 Senate confirmation when suggesting schools should carry guns.